** Postdoctoral Scholar Position in Computational Cognitive Science: Aggregating Human Forecasts ***
A postdoctoral position is available within the Department of Cognitive Sciences at the University of California, Irvine to develop computational models for the aggregation of human forecasts. Forecasts will involve unconditional probability estimates (e.g. “What is the probability that event X will happen before date Z?”), conditional probability estimates (e.g. “What is the probability that event X will happen if Y happens?”) as well as magnitude estimates (“How large will X be at date Z?”). One goal in this research project is to develop Bayesian as well as non-Bayesian cognitive models that can measure individual differences in skill and expertise and correct for systematic errors and biases in human judgment. The second goal is to build aggregation models that can combine the estimates from multiple individuals while taking into account cognitive errors and individual differences. The project is part of a forecasting tournament organized by IARPA. In this tournament, multiple teams are developing elicitation and aggregation methods to forecast events on the basis of human judgments. Teams are evaluated on the forecasting accuracy of a common set of questions.
The applicant will work in the Memory and Decision-Making Laboratory (“Madlab”) at the University of California, Irvine, and will primarily interact with Professor Mark Steyvers. In addition, there is the possibility of interacting and collaborating with Professor Michael Lee and other team members at six other universities who are part of the project.
Requirements: The applicant must have a Ph.D. degree in Cognitive Sciences, Computer Science, Statistics, Decision Sciences, Engineering, or related field and have expertise in computational modeling using probabilistic approaches. The applicant must have excellent computer skills in Matlab or R programming. Experience with probabilistic graphical models, Bayesian networks, and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques is preferable but not required. The applicant is expected to play to a key role in the development of journal and conference publications.
Salary is commensurate with experience. The appointment can start as early as 9/23/2012, but we will consider candidates who can start at a later date.
Application procedure – Please send a letter of application, curriculum vitae, and the names of three references to:
Professor Mark Steyvers
Department of Cognitive Sciences
University of California, Irvine
Irvine, CA 92697-5100
The University of California, Irvine is an equal opportunity employer committed to excellence through diversity.