Comparing Classical and Quantum Probability Accounts of the Interference Effect in Decision Making

Prior research has found interference effects (IEs) in decision making, which violate classical probability theory (CPT). We developed a model of IEs called the probability theory + noise (PTN) model and compare its predictions to an existing quantum model called the Belief-Action Entanglement (BAE) model. The PTN assumes that memory operates consistently with CPT, but noise in the retrieval process produces violations of CPT. Using parameter space partitioning, we identified that both models can produce all qualitative patterns of IEs. We found that the BAE tends to produce IE distributions with a larger variance compared to the PTN. We also show that PTN predicts a relationship we term the conditional attack probability equality (CAEP) which is violated in previously reported data. The CAEP holds for the PTN regardless of chosen parameter values. However, the BAE is not constrained by the CAEP.