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Polarization and extremism emerge from rational choice: Estimation as a solution to biased sampling

Authors
Abhay Alaukik
University of Florida ~ Psychology
Dr. Peter Kvam
University of Florida ~ Department of Psychology
Matthew Baldwin
University of Florida ~ Department of Psychology
Callie Mims
University of Florida ~ Department of Psychology
Arina Martemyanova
University of Florida ~ Psychology
Abstract

Polarization is often described as the product of biased information search, motivated reasoning, or other psychological biases. However, polarization and extremism can still occur in the absence of any bias or irrational thinking. In this talk, we show that polarization occurs among groups of decision makers who are implementing rational choice strategies (specifically, random walk / relative evidence choice strategies) that maximize decision efficiency. This occurs because extreme information enables decision makers to make up their minds and stop considering new information, whereas moderate information is unlikely to trigger a decision and is thus under-represented in the sampled information. Furthermore, groups of decision makers will generate extremists – individuals who stop sampling after examining extreme information. In re-analyses of seven empirical studies spanning perceptual and preferential choice, a series of simulations manipulating threshold, bias, and drift rates, and a new study examining politically and affectively charged decisions, we show that both polarization and extremism manifest when decision makers gather information to make a choice (choice task). Polarization did not occur, however, when participants made an inference about the difference between two quantities (estimation task). Estimation therefore offers a theoretically-motivated intervention that can increase the amount of information people consider and reduce the degree of polarization and extremism among groups of individuals.

Tags

Keywords

decision making; polarization; information search; estimation; bias
Discussion
New
accumulator models Last updated 2 years ago

Interesting talk! You said a little about accumulator models right at the end, but I'd be interested in hearing more about how those evidence accumulation assumptions change your random-walk intuitions and results. Taking your toy problem of choosing between an apple and orange, an accumulator seems like it may provide a better account. As one exam...

Michael Lee 3 comments
Cite this as:

Alaukik, A., Kvam, P., Baldwin, M., Mims, C. E., & Martemyanova, A. (2021, July). Polarization and extremism emerge from rational choice: Estimation as a solution to biased sampling. Paper presented at Virtual MathPsych/ICCM 2021. Via mathpsych.org/presentation/506.